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July 22, 2021
Uncategorized

摩通指油價再升三成股市才現嚴重影響

沙特阿拉伯的石油設施上星期六遭到無人機襲擊,導致全球石油產量減少了百分之五,油價在近日飆升。大型銀行摩根大通表示,油價的升勢還需要猛烈得多,才會對股票市場產生嚴重影響。

摩根大通的宏觀量化及衍生策略分析師,在研究歷史上油價與股市之間的關係後表示,只有當油價上升至每桶80至85元水平的時候,標普五百指數才會開始感受到負面影響,即表示油價需要在目前每桶62元左右的水平上,再上升大約三成。不過他亦表示,這樣並不代表現時的油價水平增幅,對股市是毫無影響。因為受惠於油價上升,能源股會走高,會加速股市轉動,讓投資者更關注價值股,而這個過程又對能源股產生支持。油價上升亦能夠提高能源產業的利潤及就業,不過油價增幅過大,就可能會損害到作為經濟主要支柱的消費者支出。他又指出,雖然國際油價近一兩日飆升,不過目前的油價水平,仍然不及2008年的高位。

另一方面,路透社引述消息人士指出,沙特阿拉伯因為遇襲而損失的每日570萬桶產油量,目前已經接近恢復到七成。亦有消息指出,沙特拉伯的國家石油公司,沙特阿美(Saudi Aramco)的產量,將於未來兩、三個星期,就可以完全恢復。

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