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July 22, 2021
Uncategorized

經合組織下調今年全球經濟增長預測

因從中國爆發的新型冠狀病毒肺炎疫情,已經在全球數十個國家擴散,政府間國際組織、經濟合作暨發展組織(OECD)將今年全球的經濟增長預測下調了半個百分點,達到2009年金融危機以來最差的一次全年增長預期。

經濟合作暨發展組織,一般簡稱叫經合組織,是由全球三十六個市場經濟國家組成的政府間國際組織,總部設於法國巴黎的米埃特堡。經合組織今日表示,在各國政府試圖遏制新型冠狀病毒疫情之際,預期全球經濟增長,在今年將會顯著放緩,不過具體放緩幅度就仍然無法確定。

經合組織表示,在他們預設的最佳環境之下,即是假設疫情在今季見頂、疫情開始受控,今年的全球經濟增長預期由疫情爆發前原本的2.9%,下調到2.4%。這半個百分點的減少,節合計算,即是大約全球經濟會損失四千億元。

不過如果疫情持續的時間較預期長,以及繼續在全球其他地區擴散,這樣就將會對全球經濟造成嚴重衝擊。在這個情況之下,預期今年的全球經濟增長,有可能會跌至1.5%。部分重要經濟體,例如是日本及歐元區,亦可能會陷入衰退。

經合組織指出,新型冠狀病毒疫情迅速擴散,對全球的需求及供應造成重創,亦挑戰各國政府及中央銀行的應變能力。如果疫情惡化,所有主要經濟體可能要在衛生醫療以及經濟刺激方面,採取一致的政策行動。

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