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July 22, 2021
Uncategorized

國基會下調歐元區今年經濟增長預期

國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)在最新發表的一份「歐洲地區經濟展望」中指出,歐元區的經濟增長放緩情況,將會超過原先的預期。因為目前全球貿易局勢仍然持續緊張,歐元區的製造業危機,可能將會蔓延到服務業,進一步打擊該區的整體經濟前景。

國際貨幣基金組織在「歐洲地區經濟展望」中,將今年的歐元區經濟增長預期,從原先的1.3%,下調至1.2%。與去年的1.9%增幅比較,出現明顯放緩。組織又表示,由於區內經濟向下的風險已經增加,歐洲當局應該要做好應急計劃的實施準備,以防止這些預期風險最終會成為現實,尤其是目前可以再實施有效貨幣政策行動的空間已經減少。組織強調,有關的風險來自於多個因素,包括全球的貿易保護主義與日俱增、英國脫歐的不明朗,以及地緣政治的危險。

為了應付這一輪預期中的經濟放緩,組織呼籲歐元區各國政府,要推出同步的財政政策。組織表示,歐元區經濟增長放緩的重要內部原因,是區內最大的經濟體德國,本身的經濟增長軟弱,而第三大經濟體意大利的經濟發展亦是停滯不前。組織亦下調了對兩國的經濟增長預期。德國今年經濟增長預期,由0.8%,下調至0.5%。2020年的就由1.7%下調至1.2%,預期意大利今年的經濟會出現停滯,並無增長;2020年的經濟增長預期就有0.5%。

在另一方面,歐盟統計局公布,歐元區九月份的零售銷售按月增長0.1%,符合市場預期,按年增長就有3.1%,高過市場預期的2.5%增幅。

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