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July 22, 2021
Uncategorized

國基會指全球經濟增長轉弱跡象增加

國際貨幣基金組織在最新公佈的全球金融穩定報告中指出,全球經濟增長轉弱的跡象已經增加。又警告澳洲、德國等國家,可能需要推出刺激財政的做法,因為經濟放緩的幅度,可能已經超過預期。

這一份全球金融穩定報告指出,目前全球經濟增長已經轉弱的跡象增加。不過發達國家的貨幣政策前景,就轉向鴿派,讓金融市場情緒維持正面。目前全球金融狀況仍然算是寬鬆,在中期來說,金融穩定的風險基本上並無改變。組織警告,如果貿易緊張局勢升級,以及英國真是在無協議的情況之下脫歐,將可能導致市場情緒急劇惡化。

而在另一方面,部份國家的企業及非銀行金融部門的脆弱性就增加了,如果是以國內生產總值計算,大約有七成的系統重要性國家,企業脆弱問題較為嚴重,可能會加劇經濟向下的走勢。組織又表示,澳洲、德國及中國等國家,可能需要實施財政刺激計劃,因為經濟放緩的幅度可能超過預期。組織又呼籲,日本及南韓亦應該實施有限度的財政刺激計劃。

組織在財政監測報告中表示,日本和中國在採取任何財政刺激措施的同時,亦應該推出一個中期財政整固計劃。組織預期,隨著中國債券在四月納入全球債券指數,一直至明年,將會帶動多達一千五百億美元的資金流入中國,而中國納入基準指數,亦令到中國對其他新興市場的重要性持續增加。

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