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September 13, 2023
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8月CPI年增3.7% 高預期 Fed今年或再升息

由於油價飆升影響,美國通膨再加速成長,8 月消費者物價指數 (CPI)年增率增速超過經濟學家預期,已連續兩個月反彈,其中核心 CPI 增速也有所提升。

勞工部週三(13 日)公布 8 月消費者物價指數(CPI)年增 3.7%,略高於市場預期的 3.6%,也高於前值 3.2%;不過扣除食品和能源成本的核心 CPI 年增 4.3%,符合市場預期且低於前值 4.7%,為近兩年來增幅小的一次。

按月來看,8 月 CPI 成長 0.6%,創下 2022 年 6 月以來最大增幅,符合市場預期,高於前值 0.2%,其中汽油價格在 8 月攀升是主要推手;至於核心 CPI 月增 0.3%,為 6 個月來首次加速成長,也高於市場預期的 0.2%。

分析師認為,核心 CPI年增降溫可能會在一定程度上減輕 美聯儲 的壓力,但油價的大幅波動,很可能會讓歐美各國需要在更長時間內保持高利率,美聯儲 在第四季仍存在升息的可能性。

值得注意的是,美聯儲密切留意的超級通膨指標、也就是剔除住房後的核心服務業通膨在 8 月成長 0.53%,遠高 7 月的 0.2%。

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