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July 22, 2021
Uncategorized

高盛下調明年上半年度國家經濟預測

高盛首席經濟學家哈祖斯指出,鑑於最近的市場動波動,及疲弱的經濟數據,將2019年上半年度的國家經濟增長預測,從之前的百分之二點四,下調至百分之二,亦將聯儲局明年加息次數的預期向下調整。

高盛首席經濟學家哈祖斯,在最新發表的報告中指出,國家經濟的增長已經明顯放緩。在今年夏天的時候,實際的國內生產總值和現況活動指標,都保持在百分之三至百分之四的水平,但在最近就下跌至百分之二至百分之二點五。他認為,來自財政政策以及金融方面的推動力,亦正在逐漸減退。哈祖斯指出,目前的金融情況變成了一個巨大阻力,可能會導致明年頭三個季度的的實際國內生產總值的增幅,減少超過一個百分點,意味著經濟增長。雖然仍然高過趨勢線,但需求方面就大幅減弱。他調低了明年上半年度的國家經濟增長預測,由原本的百分之二點四,下調至百分之二。而明年下半年度的國家經濟增長預測,就維持在百分之一點七五。

另外,他又提到衡量勞動力市場緊張程度的一系列指標,都證明勞動力市場越來越緊張,加上目前的國家經濟增長,仍然較預期理想,所以預期去到明年年底,全國失業率會回落至百分之三點二五的水平。聯儲局在今個月中的議息會議上,暗示明年當局會加息兩次。哈祖斯認為,近期公布的數據轉弱,以及金融狀況指數收緊。他在報告中就將明年的預期加息次數由一點六次調降至一點二次。

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