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July 8, 2025
財經

紐約聯儲:消費者通脹預期回落至關稅宣布前

紐約聯邦儲備銀行週二發布的月度調查數據顯示 ,消費者對未來通脹的預期已回落至年初水平,即宣布大幅關稅之前的水平。

紐約聯儲銀行最新美國消費者調查顯示,受訪者一年期通脹預測平均值降至 3%,前一月為 3.2%。數據反映消費者對川普總統關稅措施牽動通脹上升的憂慮降溫。

受通脹憂慮帶動,一年期通脹預測在 3 月及 4 月一度升至 3.6%。最新數字則回落至 1 月水平,即未公布關稅之前的水平。受訪者對 3 年及 5 年期通脹預測平均值保持不變,分別是 3% 與 2.6%。

關於勞動力市場的看法,受訪者發出的信號喜憂參半。對未來 12 個月內失業的預期概率降至去年 12 月以來最低。但對失業後找到新工作的預期概率也出現下降。

隨著對裁員的擔憂緩解,消費者對自身財務狀況的信心似乎略有增強。預計一年後自身財務狀況將惡化的家庭比例下降,而預計情況會改善的比例上升。

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