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July 22, 2021
Uncategorized

國基會預料全球經濟增長遜預期

國際貨幣基金組織總裁拉加德表示,目前全球經濟正失去進一步的增長動力。雖然今年下半年度,可能會出現一定程度的反彈,不過整體來說,預料全球經濟增速,仍然是會低過預期。

國際貨幣基金組織總裁拉加德,在首都華盛頓的美國商會中發表演講時表示,基金組織在一月時公佈的預期,是預測今明兩年的全球經濟增長,大約有百分之三點五。但自從一月以來,全球經濟已經失去進一步增長的動力,所以基金組織將會下調全球經濟增長預測。拉加德表示,基金組織預計全球七成的經濟體,都將會出現增長放緩的情況,主要原因是去年下半年的國際貿易緊張及金融收緊的情況。她認為,在短期之內不會出現衰退。在聯儲局的帶動下,多國央行正採取更有耐情的貨幣政策正常化步伐。同一時間,亦有部份國家增加了經濟刺激的力度。這些措施,將令到全球經濟受惠。基金組織預計在今年下半年度,到明年的這段期間,全球經濟增長將可能加快,但這個反彈亦容易受到風險影響,例如是英國脫歐等因素,都將會增加不確定性。

在另一方面,國際貨幣基金組織在四份月的全球經濟展望報告中表示,如果美國同中國的貿易戰升級,美國的農業將出現大幅萎縮,而中國的電子和其他製造業亦將受到重創,並可能導致兩國的就業職位都減少。不過兩國的貿易收支總額,不會有大變動。雖然部份國家,將會從因為貿易戰升級,而出現的新貿易流動中得益,但由於宏觀經濟的不確定性增加,大部份國家都會受到負面影響。

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